The price of aluminum raw materials may rebound in the second half of the year: alumina

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IAI's global alumina production from January to May was 51.131 million tons, up 0.5% year-on-year. My non-ferrous network announced that the domestic alumina production from January to May was 27.5 million tons, down 3.8% year-on-year. The operating rate of alumina enterprises has continued to rise since 18 years and 1 month, and increased to 88.2% in April. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's alumina imports in the first quarter of 2018 were 258,200 tons, a sharp drop of 71.9% from last year. There are two reasons for the sharp decline in the number of alumina imports. The first point is that overseas prices are much higher than domestic prices; the second is relatively poor demand.

Aluminum fin stock manufacturer china Two incidents in the first half of this year caused overseas alumina prices to skyrocket. First, the Alunorte smelter in Brazil was leaked in February, causing its alumina smelter to be forced to cut half of its capacity, which led to a reduction in alumina supply of 267,000 tons/month; Second, the United States imposed sanctions on Rusal, which caused the global transportation and sales of Rusal's alumina products to be blocked. The surge in overseas alumina prices has led to the opening of the domestic alumina export window. A number of alumina companies including Chinalco Guangxi, Chinalco Shandong, Weiqiao and Xinfa have export movements. The total order volume is expected to exceed 30. Ten thousand tons.

However, with the easing of bad news, overseas alumina prices have also fallen. As of June 30, the Australian alumina FOB mid-price has fallen back to $ 460 / ton. On the domestic front, the rise in foreign prices in the early period led to a rise in domestic prices to a falsely high level. The involvement of some traders led to the current inflow of more stocks. However, the current market is mainly based on long-term orders, and aluminum prices are also weak. The market will not be willing to accept the goods. Therefore, some holders ship at low prices. As a result, domestic alumina prices have also fallen sharply. As of June 30, the price of Baise alumina has dropped back to 2,700 yuan / ton.

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In the second half of the year, the newly added capacity of alumina will be 6.7 million tons. Considering the construction progress, it is estimated that the new output will be 1.3 million tons. In the second half of the year, the electrolytic aluminum is expected to have an additional capacity of 2.8 million tons and an additional output of 570,000 tons. The supply and demand pattern is roughly balanced.

In addition to the new capacity, another important factor affecting the supply of alumina in the second half of the year is the heating season. The actual production capacity of alumina in the heating season last year was 5.19 million tons, affecting the output (within 17 years) of about 650,000 tons. If it is assumed that 2 tons of alumina is consumed to produce 1 ton of electrolytic aluminum, the alumina gap will be about 500,000 tons in the second half of the year in consideration of the heating season, and the alumina price will have a certain upward pressure. At the beginning of July, the average production cost of the alumina industry is expected to be 2,500-2,600 yuan / ton. The current price has already put the company under a lot of pressure, and there is not much room for further decline.