China's aluminum market: dangers and opportunities coexist
Dong Xing
Dong Xing
2018-07-16 14:34:53
Danger: Domestic economy suffers from both internal and external problems, and aluminum demand faces downward pressure
Domestic investment and consumption growth have shown signs of weakening. Under the background of increasing global trade friction, trade growth is also optimistic. As a basic metal, the downstream demand is closely related to domestic investment and consumption. Therefore, from the macro level, the demand in the second half of the year is facing severe challenges.
At the meso level, real estate regulation and infrastructure tightening have also inhibited aluminum demand. We have lowered our forecast for domestic aluminum demand growth for the first 18 years at the beginning of the year, from 3.8% to 2.6%.
Opportunity: The growth rate of primary aluminum supply is slowing down, and environmental hype in the heating season is expected to reappear
The prices of alumina and prebaked anodes have fallen to near the cost line, and there is not much room for further decline. If the heating season is limited, it will significantly increase the price of raw materials.
After fully considering the new capacity release in the second half of the year, the 17-year heating season to resume production capacity and the 18-year heating season production policy, we have lowered the forecast for the domestic electrolytic aluminum supply growth rate for the first 18 years, from 3.0% to 2.0%. .
In addition, the environmental protection and production policy for the heating season and the self-provided power plant rectification policy are probable in the second half of the year. Last year, the policy to stimulate aluminum prices is expected to reappear.