The low season of consumption is coming
Dong Xing
Dong Xing
2018-07-03 16:46:06
1. In recent years, with the rapid development of China's large-scale infrastructure investment and industrialization process, aluminum profiles have become an important application material in the field of construction and machinery industry. The output and consumption of the whole industry have grown rapidly, and China has also leapt. Become the world's aluminum production base and consumer market.
2. For the electrolytic aluminum industry in China, under the circumstance of many problems, such as overcapacity in the industry and excessive growth in new production capacity, the country has continuously pushed forward with the country’s policy of cleaning up and rectifying illegal production capacity, strictly controlling new production capacity, and limiting the heating and cooling season. The high-energy, high-pollution electrolytic aluminum industry faces enormous policy control and financial investment risks.
In the near term, under the pressure of multiple macro risks in the trade war between China and the US and monetary policy, the risk appetite in the domestic market has declined, and non-ferrous metals have also been impacted as risk assets. However, from a longer-term perspective, the Chinese government has shown a macro risk of hedging. At the same time, the fundamentals of industrial products continued to improve, and in the context of increasingly strict environmental protection and supply-side reforms, medium- and long-term nonferrous metals have a basis for oversold bounce. In the short-term, Shanghai Aluminum will have significant support near the 14,000 mark.